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About Realstockvalue

The objective of realstockvalue.com is to find undervalued stocks of great businesses by calculating the real value of stocks listed on exchanges all around the world. We calculate the real value using a complex mathematical formula based on long-term value investing principles to calculate the Net Present Value of estimate future cash flows. We use the following criteria to estimate future cash flows:
- High sustainable profitability
- High return on assets and equity
- Proven growth potential
- Stable Cash Flows (high geometrical mean of expected returns)
- Strong balance sheet/buying power
- Low capital requirements
- Global player (potential)
- Low price/earnings
- Pricing power
- Sustainable competitive advantage
- Strong brand(s)
- (Integrated) value chain
- Unique value proposition
- Strong market position
- Strong Management
- Competitive Position
- Business Risks
- Currency and Country Risks

We use a risk based discount rate, which is based on our assessment of the risk of the stock. The higher the risk of the stock the higher the discount rate. We use the following principles to determine the discount rate:
- Stability of demand
- Competitive position
- profitability
- risk of new entrants
- risk of substitues
- number of customers
- market power
- Balance sheet strength
Our calculations are based on the value investment strategies of famous value investors like:
Warren Buffet
Benjamin Graham
David Dreman
Joel Greenblatt

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RSVX :102796 2%

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Great Investment Books

The Intelligent Investor - Benjamin Graham
The Little Book That Beats the Market - Joel Greenblatt
The Warren Buffett Way
Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies
Value Investing: From Graham to Buffett and Beyond


 Why Abercrombie & Fitch?

Description of the Business



Analysis of Competitors

The apparel business is highly fragmented and consists of many local and global competitors. A critical success factor is brand image and popularity, which is a prerequisite for charging premiums above the manufacturing price and value creation by growth. Because of rapid changes in popularity this brand popularity can disappear rapidly. Also Apparel companies selling similar apparel at a lower price poses a threat tot the success of the Guess company. Competitors include: - The GAP (ROE 23: ROA 12: Market Cap: $8.5 billion (February 2009)
- American Eagle Outfitters
- Guess (higher price segment) - Bebe Stores (similar price segment)
- Esprit (lower price segment)
- Zara (lower price segment)
- Wet Seal (lower price segment)
- Aeropostale (lower price segment)
- Coach (higher price segment, providing leather apparel)
- Polo Ralph Lauren (similar price segment, but different collection)
- Tommy Hilfiger
- Charlotte Russe (lower price segment)
- Liz Claiborne
Although Guess is competing with a large number of apparel shops their shopping experience is unique. As a result we conclude that ANF is a franchise with competitive advantages and is able to keep an ROE of higher than 10.

Competitive Advantages

ANF has invented shop formulas which are successful and differentiates them from competitors. A main risk is that fashion can change really quickly and if ANF is not able to sell "what is hot" and to attract customers because of their unique shopping ixperience their sales will decrease. Also an economic downturn could have a short term negative impact on their financial results as people tend to postpone clothing expenditures during a downturn.

Financial Analysis

Their balance sheet is very strong. They have no debt. The return on equity is 15% and the return on assets is 10%. Their net income / tot assets is about 0.16 and their net income/non current assets is 0.5. These are all indications that their formula creates a competitive advantage and they can increase revenue and create